“We’re going to have something in the way of a major nuclear event in this country. It will happen. Whether it will happens in 10 years or 10 minutes, or 50 years… it’s virtually a certainty.”
Warren Buffett first spoke these words back in 2002. When he said them, he was basically predicting that New York City or Washington DC were going to be nuked. If you’re a terrorist, you’re not going to go through all the trouble of getting a nuclear bomb and use it to blow up Mobile, Alabama. At a later date, Warren Buffett also expanded on his list of worries to include chemical attacks and biological attacks.
Warren Buffett makes a very simple argument. There are people in the world that want to hurt us. The technology to hurt us is spreading far and wide. At some point down the line, the people who want to hurt us will acquire this technology and succeed in their desire for destruction. Buffett believes that the only thing we can do is delay this eventuality. (On another note, Buffett has spent his own money to halt or slow down the production of nuclear technology.)
Do we take Warren Buffett seriously? If you look at his skills in predicting successful companies, then it’s safe to say that he’s a bit of a psychic. Being in the insurance business, he knows how to measure catastrophic risk and is an expert in this area. He obviously has the ability to see things that other people don’t.
Berkshire Hathaway, is a huge reinsurance business, and they underwrite catastrophe policies that include floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and terrorism as well as other disasters. And he’s made a lot of money in this business. So if you disagree with his thinking, then you’re obviously betting against him and that’s just not wise.
He makes a very persuasive argument. Many of the counter arguments say that terrorists are relatively incompetent and they also mention how difficult it is to initiate a biochemical attack.
While this certainly might be the case today, that doesn’t mean it’s going to be the same 50 years from now. Technology continues to advance and it doesn’t appear to be slowing down any time soon. People that want to hurt us will continue to evolve. As time moves on, our number will likely come up.